Source: Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Fangraphs stats accurate as of 4:54 AM ET, May 7, 2014. Baseball-Reference stats accurate as of 7:17 PM ET, May 7, 2014.
A few days ago it came to my attention that Bronson Arroyo, of the Cincinnati Reds, has not thrown 100 pitches or more in a game since September 14, 2012. This stretch totals 11 starts (Last 3 starts of 2012, first eight starts of 2013).
I personally dislike how pitchers are coddled in today’s game, and believe they should be able to throw a lot more innings and pitches. If a pitcher has not shown any major injury concerns and has shown durable they should be able to throw 120-130 pitches if need be. Heck, Baseball-Reference does not even have the pitch count of Nolan Ryan’s s game log until 1988! That season, my math says Ryan threw 108.6 pitches per game.
That being said, the mythical “100 pitch count” has become more than just an arbitrary number. It has become the standard. A standard, which promotes pitchers just pitching through the sixth inning many times – depending on pitch efficiency and batter patience.
But I doubt even the people who believe that the 100 pitch count is a good thing for Major League Baseball see much of a difference between a pitcher throwing 97 and 100 pitches on a given start; just in terms of the number itself. The only difference is how the given pitcher executes those three extra pitches. *Side note: I am in favor of some sort of pitch count for kids playing Little League.*
I make the point of 97 vs. 100 pitches because while I relate it all back to Arroyo, he has come close to throwing 100 pitches a couple times. It is also the National League he is pitching in, so pinch hitting and game scenarios could lead him to exiting a game where an American League pitcher would not.
While I do not believe in the “100 pitch count” the point being made did spark my curiosity. It led me into wanting to look further into what Arroyo has been doing; which I will do now:
Bronson Arroyo’s average pitch count per game with Cincinnati:
- 2006: 109.9 (35g, 240.2ip)
- 2007: 100.8 (34g, 210.2ip)
- 2008: 101.0 (34g, 200.0ip)
- 2009: 103.2 (33g, 220.1ip)
- 2010: 98.7 (33g, 215.2ip)
- 2011: 103.2 (32g, 199.0ip)
- 2012: 92.4 (32g, 202.0ip)
- 2013: 89.6 (8g, 52.2ip)
There has definitely been a drop off in terms of pitches thrown per start by Arroyo. Keep in mind Arroyo was around the age where many players are hitting their peak, 29, to start the 2006 season. He has started the 2013 season at age 36.
Stat Dump Time….
Bronson Arroyo has pitched 1,541,9 innings and thrown 25,165 pitches since the start of 2006. Both rank sixth in the MLB over that time span. Arroyo’s career total of 2,129.3 innings pitched ranks 12 among active pitchers.
Arroyo has made the All-Star game once, 2006.
Arroyo has a career .971 fielding percentage. League average is .956 for pitchers since the start of Arroyo’s career through today.
Arroyo has a career .129 batting average with 6 home runs and 29 RBI. He has grounded into 7 double plays over his career and stole 1 base.
Arroyo has a 1-0 record with a 4.60 ERA in postseason play over a career 29.1 innings pitched. Most of the struggle was with Boston, because he has only allowed 1 earned run in 12.1 innings, in 2 postseason starts with Cincinnati.
Arroyo has a career 4.22 ERA while winnings 127 games and losing 119. He has pitched 13 career complete games, 5 being shutouts.
He has led or tied for the league lead in the following categories, in the following seasons:
- 2004: 20 batters hit.
- 2006: 35 starts, 240.2 innings pitched.
- 2008: 34 starts.
- 2009: 2 shutouts.
- 2011: 112 Earned Runs and 46 home runs allowed.
Arroyo has a career 71.9 percent left on base and a 23.4 total Fangraphs WAR. His best Fangraphs WAR in one season was 4.1 in 2006.
Arroyo has intentionally walked 56 batters in his career, the most being 7 in 2006. He has also hit a 94 career batters, 21.2 percent of those being his 20 hit batters in 2004. He has balked 4 times in his career and thrown 38 wild pitches.
Arroyo has thrown a career first pitch 62.7 percent of the time. He has a career 7.4 swinging strike percentage.
Source: Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference. Stats as of Wed. May 15, 2013 5:58 AM ET
Wednesday night, Toronto Blue Jays broadcasters Dirk Hayhurst and Jack Morris started the debate that has got the baseball world talking. Buchholz pitched a good game – 7ip 2h 8k 3bb 0r – Hayhurst and Moris began questioning if Buchholz was “cheating”.
He very clearly kept going to touch his left forearm with the index and middle fingers on his pitching hand. There was also a certain shine to that left forearm that was not there on his right arm, and that shine was not on his left arm during 2012 or Spring Training this year.
This picture is a much better close-up than the best screenshot I tried to take from the video. But they are from the same start.
Buchholz has offered a response and many have speculated. My opinion is that there is a very apparent shine to that arm. But the questions “What really is it?” and “Is it cheating?” are not up to me to decide. If I were to speculate, I would most likely be wrong too. Is it baby lotion? Is it pine tar? Is sun tan lotion? Is it something else? Is it a combination of things? Or is it simply that his left arm sweats more than his right arm out of the blue this season?
Here is Buchholz’s 2012, 2013 and career statistics to compare.
No matter what is going on, cheating or not, Buchholz is pitching at a very high level. There are also a few things that need to be remembered, again cheating or not. The first thing to remember is Buchholz threw a no-hitter in his second career start, on September 1, 2007, against the Baltimore Orioles while striking out nine batters.
Buchholz was also named the No. 51 prospect in baseball at the end of the 2006 season by Baseball America. This is before he threw the no-hitter. Then at the end of 2007, coming into 2008, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 4 prospect in baseball — only behind Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria and Joba Chamberlain.
The third thing to take into account is that before an injury plagued season in 2011, he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in 2010. He was an All-Star and finished sixth in the American League Cy Young ballot. Which leads me to my final thing to be taken into account — he entered this 2013 season at age 28. This is about the age where many players begin to reach their peaks.
He had the potential to be a dominate pitcher all along. Then when he was just 25 he put up the above mentioned 2010 numbers. So the fact that he is really good should be no surprise to anyone. He had injury issues in 2011, only starting 14 games. Then in 2012, there was the well-publicized Boston scenario that led to their manager, Bobby Valentine, being fired after one season and them trading away star players.
Now let’s look at some interesting sabermetric differences, while keeping in mind that the sample size is pretty small – at only 44.2 innings pitched so far in 2013.
Buchholz is having a career year in terms of striking out batters. He is currently striking out 9.47 batters per nine innings. His career, which includes the 2013 numbers has him averaging 6.85 batters per nine innings.
Batters have also only hit a .176 average off of Buchholz so far in 2013. This is not just a “lucky” fluke because of the small sample size either. If you add thirty-two points to his batting average allowed, which is the difference in his career BABIP and his 2013 BABIP, hitters would still be only hitting .208 off of him on the season. That is an average allowed, that over a season most any starter would take in a heart beat.
Buchholz has also left 91.4 percent of baserunners on base so far in 2013. Fangraphs also has him speeding up his pace, taking less time between pitches than he ever has.
Buchholz has been getting more movement on his pitches this year which is where the substance really is playing into in the minds of people and leading to the above mentioned results.
Click for Full Sizes.
That’s it. I have given you all the tools. Pictures, videos and statistics. Now you should better be able to come to a conclusion about what is going on with Buchholz and the effect of recent allegations.
The Atlanta Braves have hit the most home runs in the MLB with 38. Justin Upton, OF, has hit 12 of the 38 home runs. The Braves as a team have a .324/.428/.752 (OBP/SLUG/OPS) line on the season. When you take Justin Upton out of the equation, the Braves line drops down to .312/.395/.707.
The Oakland Athletics have scored the most runs in the MLB, scoring 158. They only scored 88 in their equivalent first 28 games in 2012. That averages out to 2.5 runs scored per game in their first 28 games of 2012 and 5.6 runs per game in 2013. The Athletics on-base percentage has also jumped up from .281 to .345; over the same spans.
Houston Astros batters have struck out 267 times, the most in the majors. According to Baseball-Almanac the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks currently own the record for most times striking out in a season with 1,529. The Astros are currently on a pace, that has them striking out 1,602 times over 162 games to break that record. The Braves, who have struck out the second most amount of times so far in 2013, are also on pace to break that record as well. They are on pace to strike out 1,532 times over 162 games.
The Astros have also grounded into the least amount of doubles plays, 10, so far in 2013. The Seattle Mariners have grounded into the most, hitting into 32 double plays. The Mariners lack of speed has also played a key role in the fact that they have stolen the least amount of bases, 7, so far in 2013. The high powered Athletics offense has stolen the most bases stealing, 25, so far.
The Cleavland Indians have led the league with a .200 ISO. The Marlins are the worst with a .083 ISO.
The Boston Red Sox have a .339 BABIP to lead the MLB so far in 2013. The Blue Jays and Cubs are tied for the worst, each with a .264 BABIP.
The St. Louis Cardinals have seen the highest percentage of fastballs, 62 percent, of the pitches they have seen. The Los Angeles Angels are on the other side of the spectrum at 54.8 percent. But when the Angels have seen a fastball so far in 2013, they are seeing the fastest average fastball, 91.8 mph. The Rockies have seen the slowest average fastball, averaging 90.1 mph.
The Angels *cough Josh Hamilton cough* have swung at the highest percentage of pitches seen so far in 2013, at 48.5 percent. The Indians have swung at only 42.1 percent of the pitches they have seen, the lowest rate in the MLB. The San Francisco Giants have the highest contact rate in the majors at 82.3 percent.
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen the highest percentage of first pitch strikes, 63.5 percent. The Athletics have seen the fewest percentage of first pitch strikes as a team at 55.5 percent.
Source: Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference. Stats as of Wed. May 1, 2013 4:17 AM ET
Met RHP Matt Harvey and Red Sox Clay Buchholz are tied for the MLB lead with 4 wins each. Astros RHP Philip Humber leads the MLB in losses with 4. Giants RHP Sergio Romo has the MLB lead with 8 saves.
Buchholz has pitched 30 innings to lead the MLB. He pitched 7 innings in each of his first two starts. Then he pitched 8 innings in each of his third and fourth starts.
Tigers RHP Max Scherzer leads all innings qualified pitchers with at a 14.21 strikeouts per nine innings rate. Twins RHP Kevin Correia, 3.38 K/9, is the lowest. Correia’s has a 2.95 earned run average. Scherzer has a 2.84 ERA.
Giants RHP Tim Lincecum so far has walked 5.56 batters per nine innings, the highest rate in the MLB. Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright (29ip) and Athletics RHP Bartolo Colon (19ip) each have not walked a batter in 2013.
Twins RHP Vance Worley has allowed the worst batting average on balls in play, .403, among innings qualified pitchers. He has a career .316 BABIP allowed. Mariners RHP Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed a MLB low .119 BABIP, so far in 2013.
Athletics LHP Brett Anderson has generated the highest ground ball rate, 65.5 percent, among innings qualified pitchers. Orioles LHP Wei-Yin Chen, 29.7 percent, has the lowest rate.
Clay Buchholz and Nationals LHP Ross Detwiler each have a 0.90 ERA, tied for the lowest among innings qualified pitchers. Padres RHP Edinson Volquez’s 8.84 ERA is the highest.
Adam Wainwright has the highest wins above replacement, 1.5, for a pitcher so far in 2013.
In 18.2 innings in 2013 Rays RHP Roberto Hernandez (Formerly Fausto Carmona) has intentionally walked 3 hitters to lead the MLB. He only intentionally walked 3 hitters in 659.1 innings pitched, 114 games, between 2008 and 2012.
Edinson Volquez has leads the MLB with 5 wild pitches.
Tigers RHP Justin Verlander has thrown 439 pitches, the most so far in 2013.
Ross Detwiler has thrown a fastball 92.5 percent of the time so far in 2013, to lead innings qualified pitchers. Outside of Blue Jays knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey, Rangers RHP Yu Darvish has thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs, 30.6 percent.
Among innings qualified pitchers Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg has averaged the fastest fastball, 95.7 miles per hour. When you include relievers, basically anyone who’s pitched in 2013, Cardinals RHP Trevor Rosenthal has the highest average fastball velocity at 97.7mph.
Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman’s average fastball has dipped year of his career so far and the trend has continued into 2013.
- 2010: 99.6 mph. 15 games.
- 2011: 98.1 mph. 54 games.
- 2012: 98.0 mph. 68 games.
- 2013: 97.1 mph. 10 games.
The two lowest average fastball velocities in the MLB among innings qualified pitchers, are both on the Blue Jays. R.A. Dickey’s fastball has averaged 82.2 mph and LHP Mark Buehrle’s has averaged 84.7 mph.
Batters have swung at 39.3 percent of Adam Wainwright’s pitches outside the zone so far in 2013, to lead all innings qualified pitchers. Also among innings qualified pitchers, hitters have been most patient hitting off of Diamondbacks RHP Trevor Cahill, swinging at only 37.1 percent of his total pitches.
Hitters have only made contact on 61.7 percent of Red Sox RHP Ryan Dempster’s pitches so far in 2013, the lowest rate among innings qualified pitchers.
Cardinals rookie RHP Shelby Miller has thrown a first pitch strike 73.2 percent of the time, to lead the MLB. Batters have a .768 On-base plus slugging after Miller starts a plate appearance with a ball so far in 2013. When he starts the count with a first pitch strike batters only have a .404 OPS. Padres RHP Jason Marquis has started with a first pitch strike only 46.3 percent of the time, the lowest percentage in the MLB.
Source: Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference. Stats as of Sun. April 21, 2013 4:18 AM ET
Yankees SS, Derek Jeter leads the MLB with 167 hits.
White Sox DH, Adam Dunn leads the MLB with 36 home runs. Dunn is also the MLB leader at both: 33.8 K% and 16.9 BB%.
Angels OF, Mike Trout leads the MLB with 96 runs scored and 39 stolen bases. He has done this in only 99 games. His 7.4 Fangraphs WAR is also the MLB’s best.
Tigers 1B, Miguel Cabrera leads the MLB with 104 RBI.
White Sox SS, Alexi Ramirez has the lowest BB% in the MLB at 2.3%.
Pirates OF, Andrew McCuthen leads the MLB with each of his .403 BABIP, .355 BA, and .418 OBP.
Cubs OF, Alfonso Soriano has seen the lowest percentage of fastballs in the MLB at 44.8%. Twins INF, Jamey Carroll has seen the highest percentage of fastballs at 68.3%.
Angels 3B, Alberto Callaspo swings at the fewest percentage of pitches outside the zone at 20%. Rangers OF, Josh Hamilton has swings at the highest percentage of pitches outside the zone at 46.0%
Rangers OF, Josh Hamilton has the highest swing percentage of all pitches at 59.3%. Twins C, Joe Mauer however swings at the lowest percentage of pitches at 36%.
Rangers OF, Josh Hamilton has the highest swinging strike percentage in the MLB at 18.9%. Rockies/Giants INF has the lowest swinging strike percentage at 2%.
Royals RF, Jeff Francoeur has the worst Fangraphs WAR, -1.7, in the MLB.
Tigers RHP, Justin Verlander leads the MLB with 181.2 innings pitched.
Tigers RHP, Max Scherzer leads the MLB with an 11.39 K/9 (Innings Qualified). Indians/Yankees RHP Derek Lowe’s 3.33 K/9 is the lowest in the majors (Innings Qualified).
Athletics RHP, Bartolo Colon has thrown the highest percentage of fastballs in the MLB at 89.2%. Mets RHP, R.A. Dickey has thrown the lowest percentage of fastballs at 14.0%.
Nationals RHP, Stephen Strasburg has the highest average fastball velocity in the majors at 95.7 mph (Innings Qualified).
Pirates RHP, A.J. Burnett has thrown the highest percentage of curveballs in the majors at 33.3%.
Yankees LHP, CC Sabethia has batters swing at the highest percentage of pitches outside the zone at 34.9%. Indians RHP, Ubaldo Jimenez has the lowest percentage of this at 20%.
The lead for first pitch strike percentage goes to Phillies LHP, Cliff Lee at 71.2%. Padres RHP, Edinson Volquez throws the worst percentage of first pitch strikes at 50.8%.
Tigers RHP, Justin Verlander’s 5.2 FanGraphs WAR leads the MLB among pitchers. Angels RHP, Ervin Santana’s -0.5 Fangraphs WAR is the lowest.
Mike Trout made his 2012 debut on April, 28. Here are Albert Pujols splits based around Trout’s 2012 debut:
Before April 28: 20g, .225 avg, .279 obp, .313 slug, .592 ops, 0 hr, 4 rbi.
Since April 28: 99g, .289 avg, .353 obp, .571 slug, .924 ops, 28 hr, 81 rbi.
The Yankees have hit the most home runs in the MLB, 190. The Giants have hit the least, 77.
The Rangers have scored the most runs in the MLB, 612. The Cubs have scored the least, 453.
The Marlins lead the majors with 121 stolen bases. The Orioles have the fewest stolen bases, 39.
The Angels lineup sees the highest percentage of fastballs at 61.2%. The Padres see the lowest percentage of fastballs at 54.7%.
The Cubs lineup swings at the highest percentage of pitches outside the zone at 33.9%. The Indians lineup swings at lowest percentage of pitches outside the zone at 26.8%.
The Brewers pitching staff has the best strike out rate in the MLB at 8.53 K/9. The Twins have the lowest strike out rate at 5.92 K/9.
The Brewers pitching staff has thrown the most pitches in the MLB with 18,478. The Cardinals have thrown the least with 17,021.
As a pitching staff the Diamondbacks have thrown the highest percentage of fastballs in the MLB at 65.2%. The Mets pitching staff has thrown the lowest percentage of fastballs in the MLB at 50.7%.
The Nationals pitching staff has thrown the highest average fastball velocity in the MLB so far in 2012 at 93.2 mph. The Giants pitching staff has thrown the slowest average fastball velocity in 2012 at 89.9 mph.
The Cardinals pitching staff has thrown the highest percentage of first pitch strikes at 62.5%. The Rockies pitching staff has thrown the lowest amount of first pitch strikes, throwing one 56.6% of the time.
*Statistics from Baseball-Reference/Fangraphs and are through August 21. Season stats leaders are based on being qualified.