My 2013 MLB All-Star Ballot

Please note:  I vote for players who I feel are currently having the best years — not just for stars.  I also try to factor the portion of of the previous season that follows the All-Star game in a little.

Catcher
American League:  Joe Mauer
National League:  Yadier Molina

First Base
American League:  Chris Davis
National LeagueJoey Votto

Second Base
American League:  Robinson Cano
National League:  Brandon Phillips

Third Base
American League:  Miguel Cabrera
National League:  David Wright

Shortstop
American League:  Jed Lowrie
National League:  Troy Tulowitzki

Outfield
American League:  Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Adam Jones
National League:  Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen

Designated Hitter
American League:  Edwin Encarnacion

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Pitch Counts, Bronson Arroyo, Stat Dump

A few days ago it came to my attention that Bronson Arroyo, of the Cincinnati Reds, has not thrown 100 pitches or more in a game since September 14, 2012. This stretch totals 11 starts (Last 3 starts of 2012, first eight starts of 2013).

I personally dislike how pitchers are coddled in today’s game, and believe they should be able to throw a lot more innings and pitches.  If a pitcher has not shown any major injury concerns and has shown durable they should be able to throw 120-130 pitches if need be.  Heck, Baseball-Reference does not even have the pitch count of Nolan Ryan’s s game log until 1988!  That season, my math says Ryan threw 108.6 pitches per game.

That being said, the mythical “100 pitch count” has become more than just an arbitrary number.  It has become the standard.  A standard, which promotes pitchers just pitching through the sixth inning many times – depending on pitch efficiency and batter patience.

But I doubt even the people who believe that the 100 pitch count is a good thing for Major League Baseball see much of a difference between a pitcher throwing 97 and 100 pitches on a given start; just in terms of the number itself.  The only difference is how the given pitcher executes those three extra pitches.  *Side note:  I am in favor of some sort of pitch count for kids playing Little League.*

I make the point of 97 vs. 100 pitches because while I relate it all back to Arroyo, he has come close to throwing 100 pitches a couple times.  It is also the National League he is pitching in, so pinch hitting and game scenarios could lead him to exiting a game where an American League pitcher would not.

While I do not believe in the “100 pitch count” the point being made did spark my curiosity.  It led me into wanting to look further into what Arroyo has been doing; which I will do now:

Bronson Arroyo’s average pitch count per game with Cincinnati:

  • 2006:  109.9 (35g, 240.2ip)
  • 2007:  100.8 (34g, 210.2ip)
  • 2008:  101.0 (34g, 200.0ip)
  • 2009:  103.2 (33g, 220.1ip)
  • 2010:  98.7 (33g, 215.2ip)
  • 2011:  103.2 (32g, 199.0ip)
  • 2012:  92.4 (32g, 202.0ip)
  • 2013:  89.6 (8g, 52.2ip)

There has definitely been a drop off in terms of pitches thrown per start by Arroyo.  Keep in mind Arroyo was around the age where many players are hitting their peak, 29, to start the 2006 season.  He has started the 2013 season at age 36.

Stat Dump Time….

Bronson Arroyo has pitched 1,541,9 innings and thrown 25,165 pitches since the start of 2006.  Both rank sixth in the MLB over that time span.  Arroyo’s career total of 2,129.3 innings pitched ranks 12 among active pitchers.

Arroyo has made the All-Star game once, 2006.

Arroyo has a career .971 fielding percentage.  League average is .956 for pitchers since the start of Arroyo’s career through today.

Arroyo has a career .129 batting average with 6 home runs and 29 RBI.  He has grounded into 7 double plays over his career and stole 1 base.

Arroyo has a 1-0 record with a 4.60 ERA in postseason play over a career 29.1 innings pitched.  Most of the struggle was with Boston, because he has only allowed 1 earned run in 12.1 innings, in 2 postseason starts with Cincinnati.

Arroyo has a career 4.22 ERA while winnings 127 games and losing 119.  He has pitched 13 career complete games, 5 being shutouts.

He has led or tied for the league lead in the following categories, in the following seasons:

  • 2004:  20 batters hit.
  • 2006:  35 starts, 240.2 innings pitched.
  • 2008:  34 starts.
  • 2009:  2 shutouts.
  • 2011:  112 Earned Runs and 46 home runs allowed.

Arroyo has a career 71.9 percent left on base and a 23.4 total Fangraphs WAR.  His best Fangraphs WAR in one season was 4.1 in 2006.

Arroyo has intentionally walked 56 batters in his career, the most being 7 in 2006.  He has also hit a 94 career batters, 21.2 percent of those being his 20 hit batters in 2004.  He has balked 4 times in his career and thrown 38 wild pitches.

Arroyo has thrown a career first pitch 62.7 percent of the time.  He has a career 7.4 swinging strike percentage.

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Source:  Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference.  Stats as of Wed. May 15, 2013 5:58 AM ET

Very Veryyy Early Interesting MLB Hitting Statistics Dump (Team Edition)

The Atlanta Braves have hit the most home runs in the MLB with 38.  Justin Upton, OF, has hit 12 of the 38 home runs.  The Braves as a team have a .324/.428/.752 (OBP/SLUG/OPS) line on the season.  When you take Justin Upton out of the equation, the Braves line drops down to .312/.395/.707.

The Oakland Athletics have scored the most runs in the MLB, scoring 158.  They only scored 88 in their equivalent first 28 games in 2012.  That averages out to 2.5 runs scored per game in their first 28 games of 2012 and 5.6 runs per game in 2013.  The Athletics on-base percentage has also jumped up from .281 to .345; over the same spans.

Houston Astros batters have struck out 267 times, the most in the majors.  According to Baseball-Almanac the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks currently own the record for most times striking out in a season with 1,529.  The Astros are currently on a pace, that has them striking out 1,602 times over 162 games to break that record.  The Braves, who have struck out the second most amount of times so far in 2013, are also on pace to break that record as well.  They are on pace to strike out 1,532 times over 162 games.

The Astros have also grounded into the least amount of doubles plays, 10, so far in 2013.  The Seattle Mariners have grounded into the most, hitting into 32 double plays.  The Mariners lack of speed has also played a key role in the fact that they have stolen the least amount of bases, 7, so far in 2013.  The high powered Athletics offense has stolen the most bases stealing, 25, so far.

The Cleavland Indians have led the league with a .200 ISO.  The Marlins are the worst with a .083 ISO.

The Boston Red Sox have a .339 BABIP to lead the MLB so far in 2013.  The Blue Jays and Cubs are tied for the worst, each with a .264 BABIP.

The St. Louis Cardinals have seen the highest percentage of fastballs, 62 percent, of the pitches they have seen.  The Los Angeles Angels are on the other side of the spectrum at 54.8 percent.  But when the Angels have seen a fastball so far in 2013, they are seeing the fastest average fastball, 91.8  mph.  The Rockies have seen the slowest average fastball, averaging 90.1 mph.

The Angels *cough Josh Hamilton cough* have swung at the highest percentage of pitches seen so far in 2013, at 48.5 percent.  The Indians have swung at only 42.1 percent of the pitches they have seen, the lowest rate in the MLB.  The San Francisco Giants have the highest contact rate in the majors at 82.3 percent.

The Milwaukee Brewers have seen the highest percentage of first pitch strikes, 63.5 percent.  The Athletics have seen the fewest percentage of first pitch strikes as a team at 55.5 percent.

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Source:  Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference.  Stats as of Wed. May 1, 2013 4:17 AM ET

Very Veryyy Early Interesting MLB Pitching Statistics Dump

Met RHP Matt Harvey and Red Sox Clay Buchholz are tied for the MLB lead with 4 wins each.  Astros RHP Philip Humber leads the MLB in losses with 4.  Giants RHP Sergio Romo has the MLB lead with 8 saves.

Buchholz has pitched 30 innings to lead the MLB.  He pitched 7 innings in each of his first two starts.  Then he pitched 8 innings in each of his third and fourth starts.

Tigers RHP Max Scherzer leads all innings qualified pitchers with at a 14.21 strikeouts per nine innings rate.  Twins RHP Kevin Correia, 3.38 K/9, is the lowest.  Correia’s has a 2.95 earned run average.  Scherzer has a 2.84 ERA.

Giants RHP Tim Lincecum so far has walked 5.56 batters per nine innings, the highest rate in the MLB.  Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright (29ip) and Athletics RHP Bartolo Colon (19ip) each have not walked a batter in 2013.

Twins RHP Vance Worley has allowed the worst batting average on balls in play, .403, among innings qualified pitchers.  He has a career .316 BABIP allowed.  Mariners RHP Hisashi Iwakuma has allowed a MLB low .119 BABIP, so far in 2013.

Athletics LHP Brett Anderson has generated the highest ground ball rate, 65.5 percent, among innings qualified pitchers.  Orioles LHP Wei-Yin Chen, 29.7 percent, has the lowest rate.

Clay Buchholz and Nationals LHP Ross Detwiler each have a 0.90 ERA, tied for the lowest among innings qualified pitchers.  Padres RHP Edinson Volquez’s 8.84 ERA is the highest.

Adam Wainwright has the highest wins above replacement, 1.5, for a pitcher so far in 2013.

In 18.2 innings in 2013 Rays RHP Roberto Hernandez (Formerly Fausto Carmona)  has intentionally walked 3 hitters to lead the MLB.  He only intentionally walked 3 hitters in 659.1 innings pitched, 114 games, between 2008 and 2012.

Edinson Volquez has leads the MLB with 5 wild pitches.

Tigers RHP Justin Verlander has thrown 439 pitches, the most so far in 2013.

Ross Detwiler has thrown a fastball 92.5 percent of the time so far in 2013, to lead innings qualified pitchers.  Outside of Blue Jays knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey, Rangers RHP Yu Darvish has thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs, 30.6 percent.

Among innings qualified pitchers Nationals RHP Stephen Strasburg has averaged the fastest fastball, 95.7 miles per hour. When you include relievers, basically anyone who’s pitched in 2013, Cardinals RHP Trevor Rosenthal has the highest average fastball velocity at 97.7mph.

Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman’s average fastball has dipped year of his career so far and the trend has continued into 2013.

  • 2010:  99.6 mph. 15 games.
  • 2011:  98.1 mph. 54 games.
  • 2012:  98.0 mph. 68 games.
  • 2013:  97.1 mph. 10 games.

The two lowest average fastball velocities in the MLB among innings qualified pitchers, are both on the Blue Jays.  R.A. Dickey’s fastball has averaged 82.2 mph and LHP Mark Buehrle’s has averaged 84.7 mph.

Batters have swung at 39.3 percent of Adam Wainwright’s pitches outside the zone so far in 2013, to lead all innings qualified pitchers. Also among innings qualified pitchers, hitters have been most patient hitting off of Diamondbacks RHP Trevor Cahill, swinging at only 37.1 percent of his total pitches.

Hitters have only made contact on 61.7 percent of Red Sox RHP Ryan Dempster’s pitches so far in 2013, the lowest rate among innings qualified pitchers.

Cardinals rookie RHP Shelby Miller has thrown a first pitch strike 73.2 percent of the time, to lead the MLB.  Batters have a .768 On-base plus slugging after Miller starts a plate appearance with a ball so far in 2013.  When he starts the count with a first pitch strike batters only have a .404 OPS.  Padres RHP Jason Marquis has started with a first pitch strike only 46.3 percent of the time, the lowest percentage in the MLB.

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Source:  Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference.  Stats as of Sun. April 21, 2013 4:18 AM ET

Very Veryyy Early Interesting MLB Hitting Statistics Dump

Two Tigers outfielders, Tori Hunter and Austin Jackson lead the MLB with 24 hits each.

Braves OF, Justin Upton leads the MLB with 8 home runs. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season in 2012, until April 23.  It took him 365 plate appearances and until July 20, to hit his eighth home run in 2012.  He currently sits at 57 PA for the 2013 season.

Mets catcher, John Buck is doing his best to try to keep prospect Travis d’Arnaud in the minors.  Buck is tied for MLB lead with 19 runs batted in.  He had 18 RBI last season through June 26.  So in terms of batting runners home he is about 41 games ahead of his 2012 pace in Miami.  Buck also already has 6 home runs, a plateau he did not reach until June 24 last season.

Reds 1B, Joey Votto has walked in 1/3 of his 63 plate appearances in 2013.  Votto did not qualify for the batting title in 2012 due to injuries, but among players with at least 450 PA in 2012 Joey Votto led the MLB with a 19.3 percent walk rate.

Starlin Castro has had 58 plate appearances in 2013 and walked ZERO times.

Braves 3B, Chris Johnson leads the MLB with a .500 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play).  Braves OF, Jason Heyward has the second worst BABIP among qualified players sitting at .091.

Two players in the MLB currently have a .500 On-base percentage, or better.  They are Joey Voto with a .556 OBP and Lance Berkman with a .500 OBP.

The best fielder in the MLB thus far has been Matt Dominguez according to the fielding leaderboard on Fangraphs.  For what it’s worth, I will say that defensive sabermetrics are something I do not completely buy into.  However it is hard to argue against the fact that the same leader board rates Ryan Zimmerman and Shin-Soo Choo as the worst two fielders in the majors thus far in 2013.

Speaking of Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, he has been hit by seven pitches already in 2013.  No team, other than Choo’s team the Reds, has been hit more than seven times as a whole.

Royals 2B Chris Getz, has seen the highest percentage of pitches being fastballs, 76.1 percent, in the MLB.  Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez, has seen the lowest percentage of pitches being fastballs, 39.9 percent, in the MLB.

Reds 1B Joey Votto, has swung the bat on pitches outside of the zone 13 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the MLB.  Giants 3B Pablo Sandoval, has swung at 46.9 percent of pitches outside the zone, the highest rate in the MLB.  Overall Sandoval is swinging the bat at 60.6 percent of the pitches he has seen, also the highest rate in the MLB.  Mets OF Lucas Duda, beats Voto here, in terms of swinging at the least percentage of pitches seen – 29.9 percent.

Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons and Brewers OF Carlos Gomez each have been in a 0-1 count at the highest rate in the MLB, each seeing a first pitch strike 76.1 percent of the time.

Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez has a 19.7 percent swinging strike percentage to lead the MLB.  And maybe the statistic that sticks out to me most in this whole post is the fact that in 51 plate appearances in 2013 Marlins 3B, Placido Polanco, has a swinging strike percentage of 0.0 percent, according to Fangraphs.  This is just phenomenal bat control, and even though it really sticks out to me I am going to trust Fangraphs is right, like usual.  I mean that is just crazy to think about, he has seen 176 pitches in 2013 against some of the best pitchers on the planet and he has not swung and missed at any of those pitches.

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Source:  Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Stats through April 17, 2013 games.

MLB Stat Dump. (Lefty Edition 2008-Today)

Major League Baseball statistic leaders off of left-handed pitchers since 2008:

Category Player Total
Hits Derek Jeter 314
Doubles Mark Teixeira 61
Home runs Albert Pujols 61
RBI Tie:  Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira 180
BB Nick Swisher 165
IBB Albert Pujols 40
Strikeouts Ryan Howard 331
HBP Chase Utley 40
GDP Adrian Gonzalez 51
Average Matt Kemp .349
OBP David Wright .453
SLG Albert Pujols .667
OPS Albert Pujols 1.088
BABIP Matt Kemp .390
Infield Hits Ichiro Suzuki 86

 

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Source:  Fangraphs. Stats through September 13, 2012 games.

A.J. Burnett’s Comeback Season

On February 19 the New York Yankees traded A.J. Burnett and cash to the Pittsburgh Pirates for minor league RHP Diego Moreno and minor league OF Exicardo Cayones.  The Yankees came into the 2012 season thinking they had plenty of pitching depth, and with Burnett’s struggles over the past two seasons (21-26, 5.20 ERA) he became the odd man out.

Given he has only made five starts in his new home in 2012, Burnett has outside of one start great numbers.  The following table shows his total numbers with the Yankees and his first five starts with the Pirates.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2012 PIT 1 2 5.12 5 5 0 0 31.2 33 18 18 3 7 31 1.263 9.4 0.9 2.0 8.8 4.43
NYY (3 yrs) 34 35 4.79 99 98 2 0 584.0 587 332 311 81 258 513 1.447 9.0 1.2 4.0 7.9 1.99
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/14/2012.

Your numbers say what you have done.  It is what you are at a certain spot in time, but when summed up it does not always tell the whole story.  Burenett has not pitched a full season yet so the the full sample size can be easily effected by one outcome.  Here is Burnett’s 2012 game log:

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU GSc SB CS AB 2B 3B GDP
1 Apr 21 PIT STL W,2-0 W(1-0) 7.0 3 0 0 2 7 0 0 0.00 25 76 53 15 7 10 6 4 0 76 0 0 23 0 0 1
2 Apr 27 PIT @ ATL L,1-6 L(1-1) 6.0 6 2 2 3 8 0 0 1.38 27 94 57 15 12 6 10 6 1 57 1 0 23 0 0 0
3 May 2 PIT @ STL L,3-12 L(1-2) 2.2 12 12 12 1 2 2 1 8.04 22 72 41 10 6 10 8 6 0 -13 1 0 19 0 1 1
4 May 8 PIT WSN W,5-4 8.0 6 2 2 1 10 1 0 6.08 29 93 64 20 14 12 6 4 0 71 0 0 28 1 0 2
5 May 13 PIT HOU W,3-2 8.0 6 2 2 0 4 0 0 5.12 30 103 73 15 9 14 12 2 2 66 0 0 30 1 0 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/14/2012.

On May 2, 2012 he was not good.  He allowed 12 earned runs while only getting 7 outs.  Other than that start, all his other starts have been quality starts.  Also when you take that one start out of the equation his season pitching line would look like this: 29ip 21h 6r 29k 6bb 1hr (1-1, 1.86 ERA).  The Pirates should be happy with the 4.83 K/BB and 7.25 inning pitched per start they have gotten from him in those outings.

According to Fangraphs thus far in 2012, he is getting ground balls at a higher rate, 54.8 percent, than he ever did in New York.  His average fastball velocity has remained comparable to its average the past two years so it not like his stuff has gotten all of a sudden better.  It all comes down to control.

Burnett is currently sitting at an all-time low for himself at 2.0 BB/9.  The biggest difference in my opinion is that he is getting ahead of hitters at an all-time personal best rate.  He is throwing a first pitch strike 65.4 percent of the time.  For his career has thrown a first pitch strike 57.7 percent of the time.  That 7.7 percent difference could mean all the difference in the world for Burnett.

I Split PA AB H HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS
After 1-0 3671 2983 806 102 610 646 1.06 .270 .396 .435 .832
After 0-1 3731 3435 700 69 223 1176 5.27 .204 .259 .314 .573
Batter Ahead 3193 2301 710 102 833 272 0.33 .309 .491 .520 1.012
Even Count 2907 2793 687 77 0 573 .246 .257 .383 .640
Pitcher Ahead 2412 2362 422 27 0 977 .179 .188 .258 .446
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/14/2012.

The average that batters hit off of him after a first pitch strike is .204, compare that to the .270 average after he gets behind 1-0 in the count.  The OPS difference stands out even more.  When Burnett throws a first pitch strike he allows a .573 OPS.  When Burnett does not throw a first pitch strike he allows a .832 OPS.

In 2012, hitters are 0-19 in the 0-2 count vs Burnett.  Baseball has its way of regressing people to their level over time so Burnett’s production should probably drop off, to a point.  With the statistics Burnett is putting up right now it would not surprise me to see an ERA at the end of the year in the 3.80-4.30 range (Especially if he stays in the National League).

If the Pirates fall out of the playoff race and Burnett is still pitching well, you should expect to hear his name brought up before the trade deadline.

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